Report: Kansas' Climate Changing

By James Carlson

Rising carbon dioxide emissions will increase temperatures, intensify storms and dry out farm land in Kansas over the next 90 years, two scientists from The University of Kansas said in a report released Tuesday.

The researchers steered clear of direct policy positions but said the findings of climate change's effects on Kansas should prompt action.
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"If we continue on as we're going, these are the conditions we're likely to face," said Nathan Brunsell, a KU climate scientist and one of the paper's authors. "We need to decide as a society how we want to meet these conditions."

Statewide, average temperatures will rise between two and four degrees, with western Kansas seeing upward of an eight degree spike on the thermometer, the report states.

The jump is likely to have numerous direct and indirect consequences.

Heating costs could decrease by 25 percent, but cooling costs would increase by 50 percent.

By 2060, temperatures in the winter months could mostly stay above freezing, allowing insects to thrive and pushing farmers to use costly pesticides more. The hotter summertime months could harm crops and livestock, the report also concludes.

Total rainfall will remain the same, the report projects, but it will come in less frequent, more intense bursts.

The scientists say this is because shrinking polar ice caps close the temperature gap between the poles and the equator. With less contrast between cold and warm areas, air circulation patterns slow and weather systems stay in place longer.

Higher temperatures are likely to outpace the intense storms and could result in a loss of soil moisture across the state. In farm-heavy western Kansas, dry conditions could increase water needs by as much as eight inches.

"That's a lot of water to have to draw out of an aquifer in addition to what we're already drawing out," said Johan Feddema, a KU climate scientist and co-author with Brunsell.

The report points the finger at carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that many scientists link to the planet's warming. Climate change also was at the center of a consuming debate in the Legislature this past session, during which lawmakers quarreled over a proposed coal-fired power plant expansion outside of Holcomb in Finney County.

The state's top environmental regulator had denied the plant's permit, prompting a session-long scrap over measures to allow the construction to move forward.

Opponents of the legislation said the projected 11 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions were too much in the face of a growing scientific consensus on climate change.

Proponents of the proposals, however, said the plant would ease high energy prices in western Kansas and boost the economy with more than $3.5 billion in investment and hundreds of permanent, high-paying jobs.

Feddema acknowledged that divide Tuesday when he said farm jobs were also at stake.

"Is it worth trading off 300 jobs now for a loss of 600 farm jobs in the future?" he asked. "That's for people to decide."

The report says heavy investment in wind, solar and biomass energy should be pursued.

An earlier report by the National Council of State Legislatures estimated climate change could cost the state $1 billion per year.

Tuesday's report was conducted for the Climate Change and Energy Project, founded last year by the Salina-based Land Institute.

THREE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

If a report's predictions of climate change are correct, Kansas may see drastic changes.

• Temperatures rise two to four degrees — and eight degrees in western Kansas. Heating costs decrease 25 percent, but cooling costs double.

• Insects thrive as temperatures stay above freezing in winter months, forcing farmers to spend more on pesticides.

• Storms are less frequent and more intense. High temperatures outpace the storms, drying out soil and increasing water needs for farmers.

James Carlson can be reached at (785) 295-1186 or james.carlson@cjonline.com.